July 12, 2005
When the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace presented its Proliferation Threat Assessment, 2005 today, there was officially no mention of WMDs. The authors of that report have decided to no longer use the term "weapons of mass destruction" because
The phrase confuses officials, befuddles the public, and justifies policies that more precise language and more accurate assessments would not support.
It is a convenient term that lumps together the mess of "nuclear, chemical, biological, and radiological weapons". Yet it is this precise linguistic clumping of armaments that these authors seek to avoid. A neurotoxin, or any other known deployable chemical agent, is simply not a weapon that destroys a great number of people. Chemical weapons can be deadly, yet bear in mind the scales at which they operate: the devastating accident at Bhopal occurred when over 25 tons of a gas leaked from the Union Carbide Plant. A highly effective biological weapon attack could be roughly as damaging and deadly as a nuclear bomb, noted the authors at CEIP today; other biological attacks, though still terrible, would not be WMDs. The term WMD, while accurate for nuclear weapons, does not describe the reality of many non-nuclear attacks.
This is more than simply a question of precision: it is an issue of efficient responses. Nuclear proliferation is highly dependant on specific source material that is relatively easy to track. Guarding against the spread of pathogens in petri dishes may, in the end, be too difficult; a proper post-exposure remedy could provide more effective protection. As was noted by the authors who decided to avoid the term WMD---Joseph Cirinclone, Jon Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar---the proper policy responses to nuclear threats often differs from that required by biological and chemical weapon proliferation. If the US does not respond to the particulars, they warned, proliferation may increase.
For further reading: The authors' full statement is below the fold; this map charts known and suspected proliferation; and this quotes page chronicles the Bush administration's statements on Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction.
The End of “WMD”
By Joseph Cirincione
Words matter. This is why the newest book in the 21-year old Carnegie series on proliferation will not rely on a term that has appeared in all previous assessments. When Deadly Arsenals hits the streets on July 12 (just slightly ahead of the new Harry Potter book) it will no longer use the expression “weapons of mass destruction.” The phrase confuses officials, befuddles the public, and justifies policies that more precise language and more accurate assessments would not support.
Though used widely by officials and the media, “weapons of mass destruction” conflates very different threats from weapons that differ greatly in lethality, consequence of use, difficulty of acquisition, and the availability of measures that can protect against them. Chemical weapons are easy to manufacture, but they inflict relatively limited damage over small areas and dissipate fairly quickly. Biological weapon agents can be made in most medical laboratories, but it is very difficult to turn these agents into effective weapons, and prompt inoculation and quarantine could limit the number of victims and the areas affected. Nuclear weapons are difficult to produce, but one weapon can destroy an entire city, killing hundreds of thousands instantly and leaving lingering radiation that would render large areas uninhabitable for years.
A failure to differentiate these threats can lead to seriously flawed policy. For example, the repeated use of the term “weapons of mass destruction” to describe the potential threat from Iraq before the 2003 war merged the danger that Baghdad still had anthrax-filled shells, which was possible, with the danger that it had nuclear bombs, which was highly unlikely. Similarly, saying that Syria has "weapons of mass destruction" merges the danger that it has chemical weapons, which is almost certainly true, with the danger that it has a nuclear bomb, which is certainly not true. The first threat is real, but its elimination requires an entirely different set of policies than does the second. The term also blurs the possible responses to threats, justifying for some the use of nuclear weapons to prevent a potential chemical weapons attack. Deadly Arsenals disaggregates these threats, considering weapons and programs as they actually appear.
Will changing a few words really make much difference? It might. Understanding that not all weapons are equal and, we would argue, that nuclear weapons are the weapons most likely to cause massive destruction should help journalists, experts, and policy makers focus attention on the most critical threats. This does not mean that we would slow down for one minute the destruction of the 40,000 tons of chemical weapons in Russia or the 30,000 tons of chemical weapons in the United States. Nor does it mean we can let up in efforts to thwart biological weapon programs or pandemics. It might help, however, speed up existing efforts to eliminate and secure nuclear bomb materials before terrorist groups can get to them. Greater precision on the threats could lead to greater precision on policy.
This change in language is a decision taken by the Deadly Arsenals authors, but one supported by our Carnegie colleagues expert on these issues, including Carnegie President Jessica Mathews, Vice-president George Perkovich and Senior Associate Rose Gottemoeller. We hope that other scholars and organizations will also consider making the switch.
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Criticizing the half-serious proposals to institute the death penalty for hackers (which would surely be held unconstitutional by this Court), Rebecca Bolin points out that those who care that much about the damage of hackers can buy various forms of protection; true enough. Then, she writes (without meaning to endorse the argument):
Better yet, isn’t the cheapest cost avoider the one who made the security hole in the first place?
It is possible that I have gotten a little rusty since my last econ class, but I believe the cheapest cost avoider of an incident of intentional hacking is the hacker.
UPDATE: This is different from the question of the least-cost-avoider for a simple software flaw, where the lost-cost-avoider often can be the software designer. But when the "flaw" is somebody's decision to initiate aggressive action against another's computer, the aggressor is the one who can stop the aggression at the lowest total cost.
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